2019 Polls: Who Is the Fiercest Guber Candidate in Taraba History
As a follow-up to the 2015 governorship polls which ended in a re-run and the legal battle that finally went in favour of the PDP in Taraba, the State is about to witness the closest governorship contest in its 27 years history, come Saturday.
Those running the race are incumbent governor on the platform of the PDP, Darius Ishaku, former deputy governor and candidate of the APC, Sani Danladi, former Cabinet Minister under the current federal government, Aisha Alhassan, who is running under the UDP, Musa Kanawa of the YDP and Kefas Sule of the ABP.
A lot of factors would come to play in determining who wins in this contest. Factors such as religion, ethnicity, competence, the zoning arrangement, power play at the centre, the incumbency factor, an outcome of the 2015 gubernatorial polls and more crucially the recent presidential polls would suffice.
These and other Intrigues will shape Saturday’s gubernatorial elections between these candidates.
Meanwhile, the outcome of the 2015 polls in Taraba should at least provide empirical evidence of what the likely outcome on Saturday will be, albeit with some margin of error.
In 2015, the contest was between Darius Ishaku of the PDP and Aisha Alhassan of the APC. Even though a re-run had to be conducted as a result of inconclusive elections in Donga LGA, Ishaku still came out tops with an even higher margin. The PDP got 369,318 votes against the APC which got 275,966 votes- a difference of 93,352 votes.
Political pundits had averred that the Centre which was held by the PDP then, might have helped in the electoral victory of PDP’s Darius Ishaku.
Also, if we are to go by the interplay between the 2015 Presidential and governorship elections outcome in the State, then it is likely that Taraba might not experience anything different this time around. The only exceptions are that the APC has a different candidate this time around and operating under a favourable power arrangement at the Centre.
For instance, according to the 2015 Presidential election results in Taraba, PDP had 310,800 while APC had 261,326- a difference of 49,474. In the 2019 Presidential elections in Taraba, the PDP had 369,318 against the APC which had 275,966 votes- a difference of 49,837.
One would have thought, however, that with the APC controlling the centre, the outcome would be an improvement on the 2015 performance, but alas, it turned out the other way with the PDP having more votes than it had in 2015, even though marginally. With an almost similar margin of 49,474 and 49,837 votes for 2015 and 2019 respectively between the PDP and the APC, it is safe to conclude that nothing much would change in the anticipated governorship elections.
To further prove this theory, the PDP led the APC in the 2015 governorship election with a margin of 93,352 compared to the 49,474 votes margin it led in the Presidential polls. The higher number of votes margin recorded for the PDP in the governorship election over the presidential election in 2015 might be a pointer to the strength of PDP in the State.
Another factor that might work for the PDP is the zoning arrangement which had been religiously practised in the State since its creation. The north had its share under Jolly Nyame from 1999 to 2007. The central zone took over from 2007 to 2015 under Late Danbaba Suntai. Now, many Tarabans believe that it would only be fair to allow the South, under the incumbent governor, Darius Ishaku to complete their two terms. This calculation could even appeal to the zone whose turn is next. That is the ‘political joker’ the PDP might use to attract vote come Saturday.
Be that as it may, the APC candidate, Sani Danladi, is not being taken for granted as many see him as the likely candidate to unseat Gov Ishaku.
A grassroots politician who rose through the ranks, Danladi was indeed the arrowhead that spearheaded Ishaku’s victory in 2015. He has got the political sagacity and a support base of the youth to turn things to his advantage. What he lacks in terms of educational experience compared to Darius Ishaku, he is able to do with his political experience. That credential is what he often boasts of and that might count at the end of the day, considering the political value system of the state.
Also, going by the recent elections where the security agencies were alleged to have favoured the government in power at the expense of the opposition, it is doubtful if things will change. It is, therefore, a contest between an incumbent governor and a Federal government backed-APC candidate.
One other candidate in the contest but operating with much subtlety is the UDP candidate, Aisha Alhassan. As a former senator and Minister under the Buhari government, she has the grassroots support as Sani Danladi. She almost pipped incumbent governor, Darius Ishaku in 2015. She actually paid the price for her ambivalence and alleged dual loyalty, when the APC leadership favoured Sani Danladi ahead of her during the party primaries which led to her defection to the UDP. That single action actually reduced the strength of her former party APC, in the State, which in turn gave enough leverage to the PDP.
Many believed that if the APC had been united and avoided the backbiting that could have been enough to upstage PDP in the governorship election.
Ultimately, the Ishaku led- PDP government might have lost a lot of key members to other parties, which might have weakened it, but it can’t be compared to the loss incurred by the APC as a result of rivalry between Sani Danladi and Aisha Alhassan- the two strange bedfellows. This eventually might be to the advantage of Darius Ishaku.